TL;DR
CBAM (Reg. 2023/956) เข้าสู่ definitive period 1 ม.ค. 2569: ผู้นำเข้าใน EU ต้องมี Authorised CBAM Declarant + ซื้อ CBAM Certificate ตาม embedded emissions ที่ผ่านการ verify โดย Accredited Verifier — โรงงานไทยที่ไม่ส่ง verified data ถูกคิดที่ default value ซึ่งสูงกว่าค่าจริง 20–40%; เริ่มเตรียม MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, Verification) ตั้งแต่ Q3 2569
From 1 Jan 2026 CBAM moves from reporting-only to financial obligation. EU importers must surrender CBAM certificates matching the verified embedded emissions of in-scope goods (iron/steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser, hydrogen, electricity). Without verified Thai-side data the default value applies — typically 20–40 % above actual factory emissions. Build the MRV stack now: ISO 14064-1 inventory + EU-accredited verifier + Authorised CBAM Declarant on the importer side.
What changes on 1 January 2026
**Transitional period (1 Oct 2023 – 31 Dec 2025):** quarterly CBAM reports only, no certificates, no payment.
**Definitive period (from 1 Jan 2026):** annual CBAM declaration + mandatory surrender of CBAM certificates equal to embedded emissions × (EU ETS weekly price − any carbon price already paid in country of origin).
Only an **Authorised CBAM Declarant** (registered with a Member State Competent Authority via the CBAM Registry) may import in-scope goods. Forwarders and customs agents cannot substitute.
Free allowances under EU ETS phase out in parallel (2026: 97.5 %, 2030: 51.5 %, 2034: 0 %). The CBAM bite grows every year.
In-scope CN codes for Thai exporters
**Iron & steel:** CN 7206–7229 + selected downstream (screws, bolts CN 7318). The single largest Thai exposure — over 60 % of FTI-tracked Thai CBAM tonnage.
**Aluminium:** CN 7601–7616. Affects extruders and rolled-product mills in Rayong / Samut Prakan.
**Cement:** CN 2523. Mainly clinker exports to Greek / Italian importers.
**Fertiliser:** CN 2808, 2814, 2834, 3102, 3105. Thai urea / ammonium-nitrate plants.
**Hydrogen + electricity:** small Thai exposure today; relevant for future green-H2 export projects.
Implementing Reg. 2023/1773 Annex I lists every CN code with its monitoring methodology.
The verified-data dividend
If the EU importer surrenders certificates against **verified actual** embedded emissions, the bill tracks the factory's real footprint. A Thai EAF (electric-arc-furnace) mill running 60 % renewable grid power can come in 30–45 % below the steel default value.
If no verified data is submitted, the importer defaults to the EU-published default value for the product category — set by the Commission at the 20th-percentile worst performer + 17 % buffer. For Thai blast-furnace steel the default sits near 2.0 tCO₂/t; verified actuals from modern EAF mills land near 0.5–0.8 tCO₂/t.
Cost example (steel, 2026 prices): ETS price ≈ €85/t; 10 000 t shipment; default 2.0 → €1.7 M certificate cost; verified 0.7 → €595 K. Delta: €1.1 M per shipment. Verification cost: ≈ €15–25 K. ROI: weeks.
The Thai-side MRV stack
1. **GHG inventory** at installation level — ISO 14064-1:2018 baseline, monitoring at process route (Annex IV of Reg. 2023/956 defines direct + indirect emissions methodology).
2. **Source-stream mass balance** for fuels (coal, NG, fuel oil) + process emissions (limestone calcination for cement, anode consumption for aluminium).
3. **Electricity attribution** — grid emission factor (EGAT 2566 official: 0.4999 tCO₂/MWh) OR direct PPA with renewable source (must be unbundled + within the same bidding zone, evidenced by I-REC retirement).
4. **Annual verification** by an EU-accredited verifier (UKAS / DAkkS / TÜV / DNV / Bureau Veritas) operating under Reg. 2018/2067 + CBAM-specific scope extension.
5. **Verifier report + emission data transferred** to the EU Authorised CBAM Declarant via the CBAM Registry XML schema.
Documentary chain Thai counsel must notarise
**Mill Test Certificate (MTC)** cross-referenced to GHG inventory batch number.
**Energy purchase invoices** + I-REC retirement certificates (notarised true copies — banks and EU verifiers reject scans without notarisation chain).
**Director's statement** on completeness of monitoring data, signed before a Notarial Services Attorney + Apostille for EU verifier acceptance.
**Power of Attorney** to the EU Authorised CBAM Declarant authorising them to lodge data on the producer's behalf (notarised + Apostilled per HCCH (in force for Thailand 28 February 2027)).
**Verifier statement** + signed audit report — original + Apostille for cross-border evidential weight.
Common mistakes that cost certificates
**Treating CBAM as a customs problem.** It is an environmental data problem with customs consequences. Engineering, ESG, sustainability, and finance must own it jointly, not the customs broker.
**Ignoring indirect (Scope 2) electricity.** For aluminium and steel via EAF, electricity dominates the footprint. A poor grid emission factor wipes out process gains.
**Self-declaring emissions.** Self-declaration is not accepted in the definitive period — only third-party verified figures count. Without a verifier, default applies.
**Claiming a 'carbon price paid'** without documentary proof. Thailand has no compulsory carbon tax yet; voluntary T-VER retirement is not yet recognised as a CBAM offset (under negotiation — see our T-VER article).
คำถามที่พบบ่อย
We are a Thai SME with EUR 200K/year of CBAM-covered exports. Is it worth the MRV investment?+
Usually yes once the certificate bill exceeds EUR 25K/year — verification cost amortises in one cycle. Below that, the pragmatic path is to consolidate shipments through a larger trader that already runs a verified MRV stack.
Does the Thailand–EU FTA negotiation change CBAM exposure?+
Not directly. CBAM is environmental regulation, not trade tariff — an FTA does not exempt it. But a future Thai compulsory carbon price would create deductible 'carbon price paid in country of origin' under Art. 9 of Reg. 2023/956.
Can we use T-VER credits to offset CBAM liability?+
Not in 2026. Voluntary domestic credits (T-VER) are not yet listed in the CBAM offset framework. Only a Thai mandatory carbon price — once enacted under the draft Climate Change Act — would count. See /insights/article-6-2-itmo-thailand-2026 for the bilateral pathway.
Who certifies the director's CBAM statement for EU acceptance?+
A Thai Notarial Services Attorney, followed by Apostille at the Department of Consular Affairs (Thailand acceded to HCCH Apostille on 28 February 2027). The Apostilled notarial certificate is accepted by all 27 EU Member States' competent authorities.
